In a surprising announcement Australian banks say interest rates will hold for now. Many experts believed there would be another rate cut this month to boost the mortgage and housing market but the RBA has decided to hold steady for now.
Australian Banks Say Interest Rates Will Hold For Now
BusinessDay reporter Chris Zappone looks at the key factors behind the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the interest rate at 4.25 per cent.
Australian borrowers will have to wait at least another month for more interest rate relief after the Reserve Bank surprised pundits by leaving its key rate unchanged.
The Reserve Bank today kept its cash rate at 4.25 per cent, defying expectations of a third rate cut in a row – just three of 27 economists polled by Bloomberg predicted the result.
The dollar rocketed on the news, jumping about one US cent to $US1.081 – a six-month high – within minutes of the announcement before easing back to $US1.078 in recent trading It also touched fresh records against the euro and hit a 27 year-high against the pound. Shares, though, fell.
RBA chief Glenn Stevens leaves rates on hold for now. “It’s a pretty big surprise,” said Market Economics managing director Stephen Koukoulas. “They were obviously very close to cutting interest rates and decided not to.“They put a huge amount of weight on what’s happening in the mining sector by the looks of this,” he said. “So we’ll see whether it’s mining versus the rest of the economy – who wins out?”
The winners today include deposit holders, who can expect to retain their current interest income streams for a bit longer.
“The RBA decision to leave rates on hold reflects their assessment that the two recent rate cuts are already providing some stimulus, while the improving global economic outlook in recent months, particularly in the US economy, as well as signs that the Chinese economy will achieve a soft landing in 2012,” he said.
“The RBA will also be mindful of the very large capital expenditure in the resources sector still to come over 2012-2013, which also has the potential to create inflationary pressures in some segments of the economy.”
Interest rate futures, meanwhile, shifted gear after the RBA’s announcement. Investors are now only pricing in two rate cuts of 25 basis points over the next 12 months – about half the the level they expected only a few days ago, according to investment bank Credit Suisse.
What Other Experts Had to Say About Interest Rates In Australia…
A leading bank analyst says it is only a matter of time before the remaining two banks follow ANZ’s decision to raise interest rates independently of the Reserve Bank.
Despite the RBA keeping rates on hold on Tuesday, ANZ lifted its standard variable home loan interest rate by 0.06 per cent yesterday afternoon, and within hours Westpac moved as well, lifting its rates by 0.1 per cent.
The hikes mean ANZ’s average borrower will pay $13 extra in monthly repayments, while Westpac customers will pay $16 more.
The other big banks are yet to say if they will follow suit but Brian Johnson, from brokerage firm CLSA, says it is inevitable.
“I think it’s inevitable that you’ll see the other banks follow very quickly,” he said.
“If you look at the current kind of pricing that the other banks are running, with the exception of Westpac who price at a premium, the returns on equity that the other banks are getting on housing don’t match their cost of capital.”
Mr Johnson says he believes the small rise will hurt home owners, and while the increases may not appear to be significant they are only the start.
“The clear danger is that we know households in Australia have more debt than they’ve ever had in history,” he said.
“And we do know it’s more an indication that regardless of what the Reserve Bank does with the cash rate, we’re going to continue to more than likely see the housing rate move out of sync.
“So I think it is more an indication of some caution for borrowers going forward.”
Australian banks say interest rates will hold for now yet some think that decision is not going to last long and soon there will be rate hikes. Other experts say perhaps in a few months the banks will offer that rate cut that was expected this month. This is the ongoing guessing game we play.






